“Economic Analysis Center ttb analytics” from Thanachart Thai Military Bank Camp welcome this New Year on New Year’s Eve It is viewed as a period when the Thai economy is continuously recovering in line with goods exports and the epidemic of COVID-19. with a tendency to relax Other supporting factors are the planned opening of the country and foreign tourists interested in continuing to travel to Thailand. which, despite the risk of the Covid-19 situation, has an increasing direction of Omicron species by assessing these positive factors will help the economic dynamism continue to recover in 2022. Except in the event of a new wave of epidemic outbreaks in the country, which will have to be locked again.
Another important thing is economic and financial challenges in 2022 that both government and business need to adjust to faster. to maintain the long-term stability of economic and business growth after the Covid-19 era in categorizing economic and financial challenges according to the criteria of the source of the impact It can be divided into 3 areas: 1. weaknesses of the Thai economic sector, 2. changes in the global political orientation; and 3. changes in consumer behavior worldwide.
First challenge is about the weakness of the Thai economic sector. The main factor is 1.1) the volatility of utility costs, which will have a greater impact on the Thai inflation rate. in particular the cost of importing from abroad. The current volatility in world market prices comes from the manufacturing industry, which ceased operations during the epidemic. gradually brought back into operation But many parts are still unable to manufacture enough products to meet the rapidly growing global demand.
In addition, the global climate and natural disasters are more severe. As a result, agricultural production declined. and affect the production of products to stop. In addition, the demand for some products may increase rapidly, for example, the energy demand in winter, which is longer than usual, like this year. Although the supply-side problem is expected to gradually ease from mid-2022, Thailand’s fragile economic sector will have to try to reduce the costs involved. Find alternative energy and reduce the volatility of imported costs abroad (Imported Price) in order to maintain profitability
1.2) There is a high proportion of foreign tourists in the structure of foreign tourists who are concentrated in a few countries. especially China and ASEAN countries. As a result, tourism income is vulnerable to unforeseen events. Therefore, governments and companies should work together to accelerate the distribution of targeted tourists to other countries while increasing tourist activities that can generate added value, especially activities that follow the trend of self-travelers (FITs), who are perceived as tourists with higher spending per Person are considered group travel It will help to strengthen the income stability of the Thai tourism sector and increase the participation of other economic sectors to also promote the growth of the Thai tourism industry.
For the second challenge from changing the direction of global politics There are the following factors: 2.1) Decline in opening up of international trade. especially in large economies like China and India. Although the global tariff barrier will continue to fall. But after the trade war between China and the US in the past five years, there has been another quake.
At the same time, non-tariff barriers such as patents etc. remain high and do not tend to decrease. Asia and the Pacific in particular are considered to be the most severe non-tariff barriers. In addition, the implementation of China’s economic and technological self-sufficiency policies will further influence global trade and investment trends. Relationships through international trade agreements are one way that can help remove barriers to trade.
2.2) Common Greenhouse Gas Reduction Policy As a result, companies and governments in different countries are looking for technology. Green innovation to support clean energy along with issuing a policy to support green production methods to meet common global temperature goals This changing global policy approach when a country’s business and policies cannot adjust with the loss of economic, commercial and economic Investment opportunities will be faced, therefore accelerating adaptation through the use of technology innovation and environmentally friendly energy are therefore important.
Challenge on the third page from changing consumer behavior, including work from home (Work Form Home), buying goods and services, and more online payments due to the advancement of technology, which has gradually led Thais and people around the world to get used to it to do some daily activities in the online world. Since before the Covid-19 crisis like sending documents and buying products over the internet etc.
But the COVID-19 crisis is a catalyst for consumers more experienced working and meeting online from home. It will also greatly increase the number of people who change their behavior in purchasing products and services online. Additionally, the arrival of the Metaverse community will accelerate economic behavior in the online world. This is a major structural change and a new business opportunity for the future.
Therefore, these factors are a good opportunity to accelerate the business sector to strengthen the online platform. and improve the digital ecosystem of the organization to be connected in order to meet the needs of customers and also to support the work of employees from home. This increases the chance of reaching new customers. Reduce the cost of human resource management in the organization and prepare for economic change faster. Government sectors will benefit from the increased availability of online information resources. For more precise and targeted planning of the country’s administrative policy.
The three challenges above Although it is impossible to predict in advance how the final results will affect the direction of the Thai economy and the world economy in the future But the most important thing is Both the government and Thai companies should work together to create the Thai economy to restructure. by finding ways to effectively manage the volatility of emerging economic costs. Accelerate adaptation to changing global politics and ways to support increasingly online economic behavior. This is a change of era from now on. “
